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China has sent its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japanese territory as China ramps up tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from the island.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, active near the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.