Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Fall Over a Third In the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Statistics

The average count of everyday murders monthly in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per recent government data. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have cautioned that murder numbers might not point to improved countrywide safety.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Numbers

There was an average of nearly 55 killings a day in November as opposed to nearly 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in September of last year. This announcement was delivered by the chief of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we’ve had during these past months is very important,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, explaining that last month the smallest figure of homicides were documented for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Violent cartel rivalries, alongside the administration's heavily military efforts to confront the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent times. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate more than four times higher than the US. From that point, homicides have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety plan for an seemingly more pronounced drop in killings this year.

At a media briefing in August, the Mexican leader declared: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The key components of the President's security strategy encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation work.
• Increased cooperation between government departments.

Analyst Caution and Statistical Limitations

However, public safety experts urged caution that focusing solely on murder numbers to paint a picture of peace was misleading. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“This would be excellent information if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Oh well, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively positive.”

Per the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same period the previous year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not useful for assessing the reality of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the capacity or the desire to correctly recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that using monthly averages of everyday killings was similarly problematic because it may mask periods when there were notably spiking numbers of killings.

“Employing the daily average renders high peaks of violence less visible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can point to the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and this past November for serious offenses, per government figures. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s highly politically advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

But despite these efforts, Mexico remains grappling with high bloodshed, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-related bloodshed. Last month there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the past 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to express their anger at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to construct a story of security. Politically it’s highly effective, socially it’s highly problematic,” the analyst said.