From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro
Within the immense confusion following the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “run” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.
A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move
The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation marked its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.
The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and abduct its leader – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.
A Nation Left in Limbo
Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the headless administration are considerably more radical.
The Superpower as Rogue State
A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a rogue state.
He is convinced that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.
A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy
George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.
Disregard the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage additional military gambits.
The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims
It is widely rejected the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.
Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance
The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.
Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.
We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.
