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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd